Crude oil is expected to rebound in the second half of the year 武道圣者

The second half of the crude oil is expected to bounce back – Universal gold research team at the beginning of the new year, in the market supply and demand contradictions have not improved the situation, prices remain low volatility. After the risk aversion and other favorable factors to boost, oil prices rebounded, but only a flash in the pan, the price hit the top in the year hindered the fall. After mid October, the Fed’s interest rate hike is expected to rise, and OPEC continues to maintain high production, leading directly to the price breaking the new low since 2008. After 2016, the international crude oil prices continue to record low innovation, but the second half is expected to rebound bottoming. In 2015, at the macroeconomic level, the global economic recovery momentum is weak, the consumer price level remained low, expects global economic growth rate of only 2.6%, far below the level of potential output. Global economic growth is expected to remain weak in 2016, and the market continues to face risk pressures. Moreover, the developed countries have obvious differentiation of monetary policy, the Fed interest rate hike and the appreciation of the U.S. dollar will further bring global impact. In addition, the aging population, geopolitical turbulence and other negative factors superimposed, the short time the global economy is difficult to return to the track of strong growth. The supply side, U.S. crude oil production is expected to last year fell slightly, but with oil shale mining technology progress, the yield reduction will be relatively limited. OPEC Member States will still make full use of production, and there are still large increments from Iran and Iraq, but the output is expected to decline in the second half of this year. Demand side, 2015 global economic recovery kinetic energy performance is weak, the market for crude oil consumption growth rate downward trend. The United States as the world’s largest oil consuming country, its overall economic recovery, low oil prices to promote the automotive and aerospace and other aspects of the consumption of crude oil, but the overall economy dragged down demand for crude oil. Chinese economy is in the growth of industrial investment gradually transformed into service industry driven process, and a slowdown in economic growth, industrial production and import and export fell sharply, despite low oil prices to stimulate the consumption of crude oil, but the oil demand weakened. At the same time, Japan and the euro zone economy failed to get rid of the crisis, emerging market economy growth is slowing down, even in Brazil, Russia and other countries have negative growth, weakened demand for crude oil in the global market capacity. Although the 2015 crude oil consumption growth declined, low oil prices to promote the automotive and aerospace and other aspects of the consumption of crude oil, but the overall economy dragged down demand for crude oil. Chinese economic slowdown, industrial production and import and export fell sharply, the euro zone and Japan’s economy failed to get rid of the crisis quagmire, global demand will become the focus in 2016 is expected to pick up the crude oil market. In addition, the supply of crude oil and a leading cause of serious excess oil pressure, from the global market, the major oil producers are not actually reduce crude oil production measures, weakened the global economic recovery momentum and insufficient consumption of crude oil, the oil price pressure. At the same time, in 2015, the situation in the Middle East was surging, and the game around the oil continued to show. Moreover, in 2016, it is expected that geopolitical factors will continue to play an important role in the fluctuation of oil prices

下半年原油有望触底反弹    □世元金行研究团队    新年伊始,在市场供需矛盾未明显改善的情况下,价格维持低位震荡。之后受避险等多方面利好因素提振,油价开启反弹,但仅为昙花一现,年中价格触顶受阻回落。10月中旬以后,美联储加息预期不断升温,OPEC继续维持高产直接导致价格下破2008年以来新低。进入2016年后国际原油价格继续屡创新低,不过,下半年有望出现触底反弹。    在宏观经济方面,2015年,全球经济复苏动能依旧疲弱,消费者价格水平始终处于低位运行,预计全球经济增长率仅为2.6%,远低于潜在产出水平。预计2016年全球经济增长仍将疲软,市场面临的风险压力依旧。并且,发达国家货币政策出现明显分化,美联储加息和美元升值将进一步带来全球性影响。此外,人口老龄化,地缘政治动荡及其他负面因素叠加,短时间全球经济难以回到强劲增长的轨道之上。    供应方面,美国原油产量预期较去年出现小幅下滑,但是随着页岩油开采技术的进步,产量的缩减会相对有限。OPEC成员国仍会全力生产,其中仍有较大增量来自伊朗和伊拉克,但预计下半年产量会有所下滑。    需求方面,2015年全球经济复苏动能表现疲软,市场对原油的消费增速呈下降趋势。美国作为全球最大的原油消费国,其经济整体稳步复苏,低油价促进了汽车和航空等方面的原油消费,但整体经济拖累了对原油的需求。中国经济正处于工业投资增长逐步转变为服务业为驱动的过程之中,并且经济增速放缓,工业生产和进出口急剧下降,尽管低油价刺激了原油的消费,但原油的需求有所减弱。同时,欧元区和日本经济未能摆脱危机,而新兴市场经济增速明显放缓,甚至巴西、俄罗斯等国已出现负增长,全球市场对原油的需求能力减弱。    虽然2015年原油消费增速呈下降趋势,低油价促进了汽车和航空等方面的原油消费,但整体经济拖累了对原油的需求。中国经济增速放缓,工业生产和进出口急剧下降,欧元区及日本经济未能摆脱危机泥潭,全球需求能否回暖将有望成为2016年原油市场的焦点。此外,原油供应过剩严重也是导致油价承压的主要因素,从全球市场来看,各大原油生产国均没有实际有效的减少原油产量的举措,同时全球经济复苏动能不足致使原油消费的能力减弱,这令油价倍感压力。    同时,2015年中东局势风起云涌,围绕着石油的博弈不断上演。并且,进入2016年,预计地缘政治因素在油价的波动过程中仍将继续扮演重要角色。    展望2016年,上半年国际油价恐将继续维持低位运行态势,而随着中期原油产量的缓慢降低以及未来需求方面的回暖,下半年油价有望出现反弹。但长期价格企稳走高仍依赖宏观经济面的改善,特别是新兴市场国家金融市场的稳定。 进入【新浪财经股吧】讨论相关的主题文章: